Predictions for F1’s 2026 Season
- Coralie Tyler
- Mar 2
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 2
After three months of restless Sundays, Formula One is finally back. In honor of the new technical era the sport has entered and its unpredictable nature, I would like to share my list of predictions for the year.
I’ve organized my bullet-point thoughts into four categories:
Championship Contenders - the team and drivers I’m fairly certain have the strongest chance of winning the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships in 2026.
Challengers - the teams and drivers that I think have a strong chance of having a successful season that could lead to a seizure of the titles.
Wildcards - teams and drivers who could trigger upsets and surprise in terms of podium finishes and team rankings, should everything work in their favor.
Lookout For - a special section dedicated to my preliminary thoughts on the newbies with unknown potential
My rationale is a combination of observations from past performances, a review of Bahrain testing, and a dash of optimism. I am keeping in mind the possibility of sandbagging (teams intentionally performing slower to not show their hand), so I have taken test results with a dash of pink Himalayan salt.
I do plan to revisit this list during the summer break to reflect on it and compare it to the results that would have unfolded. So, without further ado, here are my season predictions, as of March 2026:
Championship Contenders
McLaren will understandably try to secure a third Constructors’ Championship title. How the team and the drivers (Norris, Piastri) fare in this new era of cars, rules, and regulations will make their season an interesting watch.
I fully expect Lando Norris, the current Champion, to try to defend his title.
At the same time, the likelihood of Oscar Piastri having another go at securing his win and succeeding this time is pretty high.
It would be unwise to count out Max Verstappen, so I am considering him as a high contender this season. He has been complaining about the car, but technical issues have rarely held him back from winning when the car was otherwise fine.
Challengers
As long as Ferrari has its act together, I do believe that there is a serious chance that this could be the team to face off against McLaren.
If Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have gotten all bad luck out of their cockpits, I think they both have a real shot of becoming the Drivers’ Champion.
Hamilton, who has been in Formula One long enough to have seen his share of car and regulation changes, could adapt rather quickly and finally secure his eighth title.
If Red Bull can consistently secure wins and podium finishes from both Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar, the team will be poised to secure yet another Championship. It would, of course, come down to one major factor: the car needs to work for both drivers.
If Isack Hadjar is able to thrive in the car, I can see him not only warding off the Red Bull second seat curse, but he could be a serious Champion prospect in his second season.
Mercedes has two capable drivers with a record of scoring points, save for DNFs or sheer bad luck. And those drivers, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, are back this year. Whether they can replicate that is a matter of letting the season run its course.
Russell has had his fair share of wins, so I want to at least entertain the possibility that he could be one of the top drivers who could become this year’s Champion.
Antonelli had a promising first season, and I feel fairly confident that he will win at least one race this year. His becoming a contender is a very plausible scenario if he performs even better than he did last year.
Wildcards
Should Williams experience far fewer technical difficulties than it did last year, the team is poised to finish no lower than fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship, dare I say as high as third place. Finishing in even second place would be a curveball no one would have seen coming, but as we are in a new era, I want to treat this as a very real possibility until proven otherwise.
After finishing on the podium twice last season, I think a set of podium finishes for Carlos Sainz feels highly probable. Winning at least one race feels likely, but that would ultimately come down to the car’s capabilities in relation to others.
In that same spirit, I can also see a podium finish for Alex Albon come into fruition, taking into account the aforementioned deciding factor.
Aston Martin has the potential to be the biggest plot twist of the 2026 season. The legendary Adrian Newey didn’t just design this year’s car; he’s also the new Team Principal. I don’t mean to think in absolutes, but the high stakes of Newey’s presence made me think this season could have been fantastic, but I fear, given the concerns that unfolded during testing about the Honda integration, that this could be a flop. We do, however, need to see how this all works out once it starts racing against other cars.
Fernando Alonso, like Lewis Hamilton, has been in this sport long enough to have driven in different technical eras. He could very well adapt and find himself on a podium again if the car proves competitively viable. And if it does, this could potentially be a perfect clean slate for Lance Stroll, given his much left to be desired results last season.
Should fortune smile fondly upon Haas and Alpine, even if it is for a brief period, there might be a chance we could see Ollie Bearman or Pierre Gasly finish on a podium, because when both the car and strategy work in their favor (which tends to happen in the most unlikely moments), they thrive on track.
Lookout For
Arvid Linblad, driving for Visa Cash App Racing Bulls, is the sole rookie on the grid this year. There will be no doubt that everyone will naturally want to compare him (consciously or unconsciously) to last year’s rookies, namely to Isack Hadjar, who was a VCARB driver. A rookie in a new era brings an intriguing uncertainty that forces not everyone to watch, but to let his results, whatever they may be, speak for themselves.
After two years of anticipation, Audi has finally taken over Kick Sauber. It’s a new manufacturer and a new power unit with the same drivers, Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto. The drivers will have to uniquely juggle navigating a newish team, new team leadership, and a new era of technical regulations… which is a lot for any team to manage all at once. I’d be curious to see if this translates into consistent point finishes or if we might witness manifestations of growing pains over the next few months.
And then there’s Cadillac, the new team. I feel pretty confident in the driving abilities of Sergio Perez and Valterri Bottas, who share roughly 16 Grand Prix victories and 106 podium finishes between them. I am rather curious about both the car’s technical capabilities and strategy implementation. This is exactly the same concern I have with Ferrari, though I’m unsure if the fallout from a botched debut carries the same gallows humor we’ve become accustomed to cracking with the Scuderia. It would, in fact, perhaps be a bit more painful for two truly talented drivers who deserve to bask in their return to the light.
If either or both drivers land on the podium before Lewis Hamilton, as a Ferrari driver, I do fear that the Tifosi will experience a unique emotional conglomeration of empathetic joy and peak vexation. But hey, if it happens, c’est la vie.
How the season ultimately pans out will ultimately dictate the new juggernauts for the next few years, and all of these predictions are merely that - predictions. Anything is possible in Formula One, and the racing gods have a knack for constantly flipping the coin of luck every single race. But this year? Everything is up in the air. We don’t know how the cars and drivers will actually fare, and neither do the teams. This, I suppose, puts us all on equal playing ground, and we’ll all see how this technical era starts out in real time. So here we are, venturing into uncharted territory and waiting for the lights to go out. I’ll be tuning in come Melbourne, like you all will be, itching to see how this all works out.
Mark your calendars, get your time zones in check, and take a deep breath. The nine-month journey begins once again. I’ll be checking in with you all soon.
