The 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia: The Beginning of the End?

The Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia sounds less like a Formula One race and more like a Charli XCX album title. Which is fitting, because the race itself was iconic in the best possible way. There was rain, a delayed start, tire gambles, a Lewis Hamilton recovery drive, actual overtaking, Max Verstappen finally taking his first win of the season, and a shocking George Russell retirement. It was ridiculous, entertaining, and one of the best races of the year.

Yet, as soon as the race ended, I found myself thinking about the championship standings. And one question immediately came to mind: Is this the beginning of the end?

Bahrain in Malaysia didn’t decide the Drivers’ Championship. Seven rounds remain, including the Singapore Sprint, and 183 points are still up for grabs. Championships, however, aren't decided solely by mathematics. Some weekends simply change the shape of a season.

Max Verstappen won the race in Malaysia. Kimi Antonelli finished second, and Lewis Hamilton finished third. George Russell retired. The gap between the Mercedes drivers jumped from 66 points after Azerbaijan to 84 points.

As it stands, Antonelli leads the Drivers’ Championship with 320 points, Russell is second with 236, and Hamilton is third with 214. 

So what does the title fight actually look like from here? There are three scenarios worth considering. 

The Likely: Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli is firmly in control. The 84-point gap puts him in a comfortable enough position that he no longer needs to chase; he simply needs to manage. He doesn’t need to win every weekend. He doesn’t even need to beat Russell every weekend. He simply needs to keep collecting points throughout the next seven rounds. 

Singapore cannot mathematically crown him, but a particularly strong weekend there could put Austin into play. Mexico feels like the more realistic early clinching point if the current trajectory continues.

At this stage, Antonelli is no longer chasing the championship, but merely protecting his lead. 

The Possible: George Russell

Russell still has a chance, but the path is considerably narrower. Even if Russell won every remaining Grand Prix while Antonelli finished second in each, those results alone still would not erase the current deficit. That, unfortunately, is the uncomfortable reality of an 84-point gap.

It is no longer enough to simply beat Antonelli. Russell would need to be at the front and Antonelli further down the results, with drivers like Verstappen, Hamilton, Leclerc and Norris separating them. A Russell win with Antonelli second gains him seven points, while a Russell win with Antonelli fifth gains him fifteen. That difference is monumental for someone in his position. 

Singapore, Brazil, and Las Vegas may offer opportunities. But from here, Russell needs more than speed. He needs disruption.

The Wildcard: Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton’s path to a championship requires a full-on plot twist. He sits 106 points behind Antonelli with 183 still available, which means he needs to gain at least 107 points on him over the final seven rounds while also overtaking Russell. Even if Hamilton were nearly perfect from here, Antonelli would still need a run of unusually poor results: DNFs, racing incidents and several finishes outside the podium places. It sounds extreme, but it is possible.

Formula One has produced late championship reversals before. Kimi Räikkönen famously came from behind both McLaren drivers to win the 2007 title by a single point, while Sebastian Vettel entered the final race of 2010 behind Fernando Alonso and still left Abu Dhabi as World Champion.

So mathematically speaking, Hamilton can still come out on top. But the championship would have to become considerably stranger than even the average chaotic Formula One race.

Final Thoughts

Yes, an Antonelli championship is highly likely, but I’m not quite ready to call it yet. Where would be the fun in that?

This race might have given us a glimpse of the title fight over the next few rounds. Antonelli’s lead is significant, Russell’s path has narrowed, and Hamilton would need something close to a plot twist. 

Racing, however, has never looked better. So if these next few rounds are to be the beginning of the end of the season, I do hope they are a lot like the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia: messy, competitive, iconically ridiculous, and very fun.